KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Thu, Feb 5 · 19:00 · Telstar vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: Telstar win · 44%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Telstar44%39%+5
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 57% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 60% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 53% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Jan 31 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-4
- Jan 25 · v AZ (H)0-1
- Jan 17 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
- Jan 14 · at Almere City (A)3-1
- Jan 11 · v Ajax (H)2-3
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Feb 1 · at FC Volendam (A)1-1
- Jan 29 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-0
- Jan 22 · at Nice (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · at Ajax (A)2-2
- Jan 14 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Telstar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 0-7-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.