Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · Telstar vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Telstar win · 72%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Telstar72%71%+1
OursMarket
Draw18%17%+1
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 68% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 29% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 83% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
WinLossLossWinDraw
- May 2 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · v PSV (H)3-1
Heracles Almelo
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- May 3 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · v FC Volendam (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Ajax (H)0-3
- Apr 5 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-4
- Mar 20 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Telstar | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.