Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:30 · Telstar vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: Telstar win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 29%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Telstar46%29%+18
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen30%47%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 53% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 71% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 38% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Dec 6 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-1
- Nov 30 · v Feyenoord (H)1-2
- Nov 23 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Nov 7 · at FC Twente (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
NEC Nijmegen
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 7 · at FC Volendam (A)3-2
- Nov 29 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · at Feyenoord (A)4-2
- Nov 9 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Telstar | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.