Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Wed, Apr 22 · 18:00 · Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: Telstar win · 48%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Telstar48%41%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%26%0
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam26%34%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 61% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 64% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 66% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 59% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 55% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · v PSV (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-3
- Mar 8 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)4-1
Sparta Rotterdam
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · v PSV (H)0-2
- Apr 5 · at NAC Breda (A)0-0
- Mar 21 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
- Mar 14 · at Ajax (A)0-4
- Mar 8 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Telstar | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.