Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 25 · 19:00 · Temperley vs Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors
Likeliest: Temperley win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Temperley49%48%0
OursMarket
Draw32%31%+1
OursMarket
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Temperley
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at San Martín de San Juan (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Nueva Chicago (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia Jujuy (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Deportivo Maipú (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Almagro (H)3-1
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Deportivo Maipú (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Almagro (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Patronato (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Colegiales (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Quilmes Atlético Club (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Temperley | Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-1 | 0-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.