Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 11 · 19:00 · Temperley vs Nueva Chicago
Likeliest: Temperley win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Temperley53%54%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Nueva Chicago19%17%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 38% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Temperley
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia Jujuy (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Deportivo Maipú (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Almagro (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Patronato (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Colegiales (H)3-1
Nueva Chicago
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 5 · v Deportivo Maipú (H)0-1
- Sep 27 · at Almagro (A)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Patronato (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Colegiales (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Quilmes Atlético Club (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Temperley | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-1 | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.