ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Sat, Aug 1 · 13:00 · Thailand vs Malaysia
Likeliest: Thailand win · 43%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Thailand43%68%−24
OursMarket
Draw28%19%+10
OursMarket
Malaysia29%14%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 64% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 86% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 32% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 81% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 83% | −23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Thailand
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Jul 25 · at Laos (A)5-0
- Jun 9 · at China (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · at China PR (A)0-0
- Jun 5 · v Kuwait (H)2-2
- Nov 13 · v Singapore (H)3-2
Malaysia
LossWinWinWinWin
- Jul 28 · v Laos (H)4-0
- Jul 25 · at Myanmar (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · v Palestine (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Singapore (H)2-1
- Jun 3 · v Cape Verde Islands (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Thailand | Malaysia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.