ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Sat, Aug 8 · 13:00 · Thailand vs Myanmar
Likeliest: Thailand win · 43%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Thailand43%74%−30
OursMarket
Draw25%17%+8
OursMarket
Myanmar32%9%+22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 64% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 91% | −22 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 26% | +30 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 83% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 89% | −31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Thailand
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 4 · at Philippines (A)1-0
- Aug 1 · v Malaysia (H)2-0
- Jul 25 · at Laos (A)5-0
- Jun 9 · at China PR (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · at China (A)0-0
Myanmar
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 4 · v Laos (H)7-2
- Jul 28 · at Philippines (A)4-1
- Jul 25 · v Malaysia (H)1-2
- Jul 18 · at Vietnam (A)0-4
- Jun 9 · at Philippines (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Thailand | Myanmar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-0 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.