ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Tue, Aug 18 · 13:00 · Thailand vs Singapore
Likeliest: Thailand win · 58%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Thailand58%71%−14
OursMarket
Draw25%18%+7
OursMarket
Singapore18%11%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 58% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 89% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 29% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 86% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Thailand
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 15 · at Singapore (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Myanmar (H)2-0
- Aug 4 · at Philippines (A)1-0
- Aug 1 · v Malaysia (H)2-0
- Jul 25 · at Laos (A)5-0
Singapore
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 15 · v Thailand (H)1-3
- Aug 7 · v Indonesia (H)1-1
- Jul 31 · at Vietnam (A)0-0
- Jul 27 · v East Timor (H)2-0
- Jul 24 · at Cambodia (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Thailand | Singapore |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.