ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Sat, Aug 22 · 13:00 · Thailand vs Vietnam
Likeliest: Thailand win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 32%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Thailand40%32%+8
OursMarket
Draw29%32%−3
OursMarket
Vietnam31%36%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 38% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 47% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Thailand
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 18 · v Singapore (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Singapore (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Myanmar (H)2-0
- Aug 4 · at Philippines (A)1-0
- Aug 1 · v Malaysia (H)2-0
Vietnam
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Aug 19 · v Malaysia (H)2-0
- Aug 16 · at Malaysia (A)2-0
- Aug 7 · v Cambodia (H)3-1
- Aug 3 · at Indonesia (A)3-0
- Jul 31 · v Singapore (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Thailand | Vietnam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.