V-League (Vietnam) · Thu, Oct 8 · 12:15 · Thể Công - Viettel vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Likeliest: Thể Công - Viettel win · 55%
We make it 44% for both teams to score. The market says 39%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Thể Công - Viettel55%55%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 39% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Thể Công - Viettel
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 16 · v Melbourne Victory (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Trường Tươi Đồng Nai (A)2-0
- Jun 7 · v Công an Hà Nội (H)1-0
- Jun 7 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)1-0
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Trường Tươi Đồng Nai (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Công An Hà Nội (A)0-2
- Jun 7 · at Ninh Bình (A)0-3
- Jun 7 · at Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (A)0-3
- May 31 · v SHB Đà Nẵng (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Thể Công - Viettel | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.