División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:15 · The Strongest vs Club Always Ready
Likeliest: The Strongest win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
The Strongest44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Club Always Ready31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
The Strongest
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Real Potosí (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · at Academia del Balompié Boliviano (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v CDT Real Oruro (H)5-0
- Sep 6 · v CD Real Tomayapo (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · at San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (A)3-0
Club Always Ready
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Independiente Petrolero (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · at Nacional Potosí (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v Guabirá (H)6-0
- Sep 5 · at Oriente Petrolero (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v Club Aurora (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | The Strongest | Club Always Ready |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.