Super League (China) · Sat, Sep 12 · 11:00 · Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Liaoning Tieren FC
Likeliest: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger49%49%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Liaoning Tieren FC24%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 6 · v Zhejiang (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Beijing Guoan (H)2-4
- Aug 9 · at Shandong Taishan (A)1-2
Liaoning Tieren FC
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 6 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)4-4
- Aug 15 · v Shenzhen Peng City (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | Liaoning Tieren FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.