Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Shanghai Port
Likeliest: Shanghai Port win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Shanghai Port47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Zhejiang (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)1-1
Shanghai Port
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)3-0
- Oct 13 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Zhejiang (A)4-2
- Sep 15 · at Ratchaburi (A)6-4
- Sep 5 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | Shanghai Port |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.