Super League (China) · Sun, Sep 6 · 12:00 · Tianjin Jinmen Tiger vs Zhejiang
Likeliest: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger48%37%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Zhejiang26%37%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 61% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 63% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 63% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 50% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Aug 29 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Wuhan Three Towns (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Beijing Guoan (H)2-4
- Aug 9 · at Shandong Taishan (A)1-2
- Aug 1 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)3-2
Zhejiang
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 29 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)6-0
- Aug 22 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)2-3
- Aug 1 · at Beijing Guoan (A)1-2
- Jul 26 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | Zhejiang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.