Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:00 · Tigre Reserve vs Argentinos Juniors Reserve
Likeliest: Tigre Reserve win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tigre Reserve36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Argentinos Juniors Reserve33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tigre Reserve
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 7 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 23 · at Defensa y Justicia Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Unión Santa Fe Reserve (A)1-5
- Sep 10 · v Atlético Tucumán Reserve (H)2-0
Argentinos Juniors Reserve
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 7 · v San Lorenzo Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · at Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 24 · v Platense Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · v River Plate Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 8 · at Racing Reserve (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Tigre Reserve | Argentinos Juniors Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-3 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.