Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 00:15 · Tigre vs Atlético Tucumán
Likeliest: Tigre win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 47% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tigre43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+2
OursMarket
Atlético Tucumán24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tigre
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Banfield (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Argentinos Juniors (A)1-2
- Sep 21 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Rosario Central (H)0-1
Atlético Tucumán
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Rosario Central (H)2-3
- Oct 9 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Barracas Central (H)2-3
- Sep 21 · at Aldosivi (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Tigre | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.