Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Aug 12 · 22:00 · Tigre vs Montevideo City Torque
Likeliest: Tigre win · 47%
A 24% away win. The market says 20%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tigre47%53%−6
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Montevideo City Torque24%20%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 39% | 47% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 72% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tigre
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 8 · v River Plate (H)1-0
- Aug 6 · v Belgrano (H)0-0
- Aug 1 · at Racing Club (A)3-1
- Jul 28 · v Nacional (H)1-2
- Jul 25 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)0-1
Montevideo City Torque
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Jul 31 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)0-2
- Jul 24 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Jul 11 · at Juventud (A)3-1
- Jul 11 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)3-1
- Jun 6 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Tigre | Montevideo City Torque |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.