Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 10 · 03:00 · Tigres UANL vs CD Toluca
Likeliest: CD Toluca win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tigres UANL31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
CD Toluca41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tigres UANL
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 27 · v Club Puebla (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Juárez (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Club Necaxa (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Santos Laguna (A)0-0
CD Toluca
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-3
- Sep 21 · v Santos Laguna (H)2-3
- Sep 16 · at Club Puebla (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Atlas FC (H)5-2
- Sep 7 · v CF Monterrey (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Tigres UANL | CD Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.