Liga MX (Mexico) · Wed, Oct 21 · 03:00 · Tigres UANL vs Club León
Likeliest: Tigres UANL win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tigres UANL49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Club León24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tigres UANL
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at CD Guadalajara (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v CD Toluca (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · v Club Puebla (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Juárez (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-0
Club León
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v Club América (H)3-5
- Oct 10 · at Club Puebla (A)1-1
- Sep 28 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
- Sep 21 · at Querétaro FC (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Tigres UANL | Club León |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.