Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Sep 27 · 03:10 · Tigres UANL vs Club Puebla
Likeliest: Tigres UANL win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tigres UANL63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Club Puebla17%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tigres UANL
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at FC Juárez (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Club Necaxa (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Santos Laguna (A)0-0
- Aug 22 · v Atlante FC (H)2-0
Club Puebla
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Atlante FC (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v CD Toluca (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Club Necaxa (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Club América (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Santos Laguna (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Tigres UANL | Club Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.