J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Tochigi City FC vs Fujieda MYFC
Likeliest: Tochigi City FC win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tochigi City FC44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Fujieda MYFC30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tochigi City FC
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-2
- Oct 3 · v FC Imabari (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-2
Fujieda MYFC
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Sagan Tosu (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Oita Trinita (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tochigi City FC | Fujieda MYFC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 1-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.