J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Tochigi City FC vs Yokohama FC
Likeliest: Yokohama FC win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tochigi City FC27%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Yokohama FC47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 63% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tochigi City FC
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-2
- Oct 3 · v FC Imabari (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)1-3
Yokohama FC
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Oita Trinita (H)1-2
- Oct 7 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Kataller Toyama (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FC Imabari (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Tochigi City FC | Yokohama FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.