J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 05:00 · Tokushima Vortis vs FC Imabari
Likeliest: Tokushima Vortis win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tokushima Vortis45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
FC Imabari26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tokushima Vortis
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Tochigi City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Gamba Osaka (A)0-5
- Sep 19 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)1-4
FC Imabari
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Tochigi City FC (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · at Yokohama FC (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Tokushima Vortis | FC Imabari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 1-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.