J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe
Likeliest: Tokushima Vortis win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tokushima Vortis49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Vanraure Hachinohe22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tokushima Vortis
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v FC Imabari (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Tochigi City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Gamba Osaka (A)0-5
Vanraure Hachinohe
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at FC Imabari (A)3-3
- Oct 10 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)1-3
- Oct 4 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Tokushima Vortis | Vanraure Hachinohe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.