J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 24 · 06:00 · Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
Likeliest: Avispa Fukuoka win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Tokyo Verdy24%——
OursMarket
Draw32%——
OursMarket
Avispa Fukuoka44%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tokyo Verdy
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-4
- Oct 11 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-2
- Oct 7 · at Gainare Tottori (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-1
Avispa Fukuoka
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Machida Zelvia (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)2-1
- Oct 7 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tokyo Verdy | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.