J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo
Likeliest: FC Tokyo win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 51% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tokyo Verdy13%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Tokyo63%60%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 44% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 22% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tokyo Verdy
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-2
- Oct 7 · at Gainare Tottori (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)0-0
FC Tokyo
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)3-0
- Oct 7 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Gamba Osaka (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Tokyo Verdy | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.