J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 06:00 · Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 68%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 68% for the away win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tokyo Verdy11%14%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%21%0
OursMarket
Sanfrecce Hiroshima68%64%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 86% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tokyo Verdy
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 7 · at Gainare Tottori (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 7 · v Iwaki FC (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)6-1
- Sep 6 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-3
- Sep 2 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Tokyo Verdy | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.