Liga Portugal 2 (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 5 · 10:00 · Tondela vs FC Porto B
Likeliest: FC Porto B win · 48%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tondela28%52%−24
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
FC Porto B48%22%+26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 78% | −26 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 48% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 70% | −34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tondela
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 28 · at União Leiria (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · v Académica Coimbra (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Leixões SC (A)0-1
- Aug 8 · v Amarante FC (H)2-1
- May 16 · at Arouca (A)1-3
FC Porto B
LossLossWinLoss
- Aug 30 · v Penafiel (H)0-3
- Aug 24 · at Feirense (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · v SC Farense (H)1-3
- Aug 10 · at Lusitânia Lourosa (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Tondela | FC Porto B |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | — |
| Both teams scored | 30% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.