Liga Portugal 2 (Portugal) · Sat, Oct 10 · 10:00 · Tondela vs Torreense
Likeliest: Tondela win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tondela38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+2
OursMarket
Torreense30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tondela
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Imortal DC (A)5-1
- Sep 12 · at Portimonense (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v FC Porto B (H)3-0
- Aug 28 · at União Leiria (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · v Académica Coimbra (H)0-2
Torreense
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 17 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Leixões SC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Benfica B U21 (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Vizela (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Lusitânia Lourosa (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Tondela | Torreense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.