Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · TOP Oss vs Helmond Sport
Likeliest: TOP Oss win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TOP Oss41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Helmond Sport31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TOP Oss
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 3 · v MVV Maastricht (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Emmen (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v FC Dordrecht (H)3-0
- Sep 11 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Vitesse (A)1-2
Helmond Sport
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 2 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v VVV-Venlo (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | TOP Oss | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.