Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax
Likeliest: TOP Oss win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TOP Oss41%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Jong Ajax34%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TOP Oss
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Helmond Sport (H)3-1
- Oct 3 · v MVV Maastricht (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Emmen (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v FC Dordrecht (H)3-0
Jong Ajax
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 19 · v De Graafschap (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · v VVV-Venlo (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)1-6
- Sep 11 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | TOP Oss | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.