Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Mar 13 · 19:00 · TOP Oss vs Willem II
Likeliest: TOP Oss win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 27%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TOP Oss44%27%+17
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−1
OursMarket
Willem II33%48%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 52% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 73% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 36% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TOP Oss
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Mar 6 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-1
- Feb 27 · v SC Cambuur (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-1
- Feb 13 · v Jong AZ (H)0-3
- Feb 9 · at Jong PSV (A)0-2
Willem II
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 8 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-1
- Feb 27 · at FC Emmen (A)3-0
- Feb 24 · v ADO Den Haag (H)0-1
- Feb 20 · v Vitesse (H)3-0
- Feb 16 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | TOP Oss | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.