Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Aug 23 · 18:45 · Torino vs AC Milan
Likeliest: Torino win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 20%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino40%20%+19
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
AC Milan35%54%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 46% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 80% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 27% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 15 · v Carrarese (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Juventus (H)2-2
- May 17 · at Cagliari (A)1-2
- May 8 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Udinese (A)0-2
AC Milan
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- May 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Atalanta (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Sassuolo (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Juventus (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Torino | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.