Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 15 · 17:00 · Torino vs Bologna
Likeliest: Torino win · 38%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino38%31%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Bologna37%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 46% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 69% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 45% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 7 · at Fiorentina (A)2-2
- Feb 4 · at Inter (A)1-2
- Feb 1 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Como (A)0-6
- Jan 18 · v Roma (H)0-2
Bologna
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 11 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Feb 3 · v AC Milan (H)0-3
- Jan 29 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)3-0
- Jan 25 · at Genoa (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Torino | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.