Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 27 · 14:00 · Torino vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Torino win · 57%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino57%49%+7
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−8
OursMarket
Cagliari23%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 43% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 51% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
LossLossLossWinWin
- Dec 21 · at Sassuolo (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Dec 8 · v Milan (H)2-3
- Nov 30 · at Lecce (A)1-2
- Nov 24 · v Como (H)1-5
Cagliari
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Dec 21 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Dec 13 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Dec 7 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Dec 3 · at Napoli (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Juventus (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Torino | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.