Coppa Italia (Italy) · Sat, Aug 15 · 19:15 · Torino vs Carrarese
Likeliest: Torino win · 48%
A 24% away win. The market says 13%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino48%67%−19
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+7
OursMarket
Carrarese24%13%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 87% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 33% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 84% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- May 24 · v Juventus (H)2-2
- May 17 · at Cagliari (A)1-2
- May 8 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Udinese (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Inter (H)2-2
Carrarese
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- May 8 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-2
- May 1 · v Cesena (H)0-0
- Apr 25 · at Frosinone (A)0-3
- Apr 19 · v Pescara (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · at Reggiana (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Torino | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.