Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Nov 24 · 17:30 · Torino vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 49%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino25%28%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Como49%42%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 41% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 40% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Nov 8 · at Juventus (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Oct 29 · at Bologna (A)0-0
- Oct 26 · v Genoa (H)2-1
- Oct 18 · v Napoli (H)1-0
Como
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Nov 8 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Napoli (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-1
- Oct 25 · at Parma (A)0-0
- Oct 19 · v Juventus (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Torino | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.