Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 13 · 14:00 · Torino vs Cremonese
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 24%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino35%46%−11
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Cremonese40%24%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 76% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 54% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 66% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Dec 8 · v Milan (H)2-3
- Nov 30 · at Lecce (A)1-2
- Nov 24 · v Como (H)1-5
- Nov 8 · at Juventus (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Pisa (H)2-2
Cremonese
LossLossLossWinWin
- Dec 7 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Dec 1 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Nov 23 · v Roma (H)1-3
- Nov 7 · at Pisa (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Juventus (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Torino | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.