Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 11 · 13:00 · Torino vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Torino win · 53%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino53%49%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Hellas Verona23%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 39% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 78% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 5 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Mar 21 · at AC Milan (A)2-3
- Mar 13 · v Parma (H)4-1
- Mar 6 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Lazio (H)2-0
Hellas Verona
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 4 · v Fiorentina (H)0-1
- Mar 22 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Mar 15 · v Genoa (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at Bologna (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Napoli (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Torino | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.