Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 26 · 16:00 · Torino vs Inter
Likeliest: Inter win · 46%
A 28% home win. The market says 12%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino28%12%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%19%+7
OursMarket
Inter46%69%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 31% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 88% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 81% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 15% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Mar 21 · at AC Milan (A)2-3
- Mar 13 · v Parma (H)4-1
Inter
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 21 · v Como (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
- Apr 12 · at Como (A)4-3
- Apr 5 · v Roma (H)5-2
- Mar 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Torino | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.