Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 18:45 · Torino vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 41%
A 31% home win. The market says 13%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino31%13%+18
OursMarket
Draw28%20%+8
OursMarket
Juventus41%67%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 33% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 87% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 16% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- May 17 · at Cagliari (A)1-2
- May 8 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Udinese (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Inter (H)2-2
- Apr 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
Juventus
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- May 17 · v Fiorentina (H)0-2
- May 9 · at Lecce (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at AC Milan (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v Bologna (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Torino | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.