Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 1 · 11:30 · Torino vs Lecce
Likeliest: Torino win · 49%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino49%43%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Lecce25%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 36% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Jan 24 · at Como (A)0-6
- Jan 18 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 13 · at Roma (A)3-2
- Jan 10 · at Atalanta (A)0-2
- Jan 7 · v Udinese (H)1-2
Lecce
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Jan 24 · v Lazio (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at AC Milan (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · at Inter (A)0-1
- Jan 11 · v Parma (H)1-2
- Jan 6 · v Roma (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Torino | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.