Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Dec 8 · 19:45 · Torino vs Milan
Likeliest: Milan win · 42%
A 32% home win. The market says 19%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino32%19%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Milan42%54%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 81% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 27% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Nov 30 · at Lecce (A)1-2
- Nov 24 · v Como (H)1-5
- Nov 8 · at Juventus (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Oct 29 · at Bologna (A)0-0
Milan
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Dec 4 · at Lazio (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Lazio (H)1-0
- Nov 23 · at Inter (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Parma (A)2-2
- Nov 2 · v Roma (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Torino | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.