Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Sep 1 · 19:00 · Torino vs Monza
Likeliest: Torino win · 52%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino52%49%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Monza25%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 43% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Aug 29 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Carrarese (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Juventus (H)2-2
- May 17 · at Cagliari (A)1-2
Monza
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 29 · v Udinese (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Inter Milan (A)1-4
- Aug 14 · v Avellino (H)3-0
- May 29 · v Catanzaro (H)0-2
- May 24 · at Catanzaro (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Torino | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.