Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Mar 13 · 19:45 · Torino vs Parma
Likeliest: Torino win · 39%
A 35% away win. The market says 26%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino39%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−6
OursMarket
Parma35%26%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 74% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 62% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 6 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Lazio (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Genoa (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Fiorentina (A)2-2
Parma
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Mar 8 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Feb 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · at AC Milan (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Bologna (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Torino | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.