Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 18 · 17:00 · Torino vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 42%
A 32% home win. The market says 24%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino32%24%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Roma42%47%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 76% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 34% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
LossWinLossLossWin
- Jan 13 · at Roma (A)3-2
- Jan 10 · at Atalanta (A)0-2
- Jan 7 · v Udinese (H)1-2
- Jan 4 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-0
- Dec 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
Roma
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Jan 13 · v Torino (H)2-3
- Jan 10 · v Sassuolo (H)2-0
- Jan 6 · at Lecce (A)2-0
- Jan 3 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Genoa (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Torino | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.