Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Sep 14 · 16:30 · Torino vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino13%16%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Roma63%60%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 21% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · v Monza (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Carrarese (H)1-0
Roma
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 10 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Atalanta (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Lecce (A)4-0
- Aug 24 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- May 24 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Torino | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.