Serie A (Italy) · Fri, May 8 · 18:45 · Torino vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Sassuolo win · 40%
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino35%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Sassuolo40%33%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 50% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 67% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 53% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- May 2 · at Udinese (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Inter (H)2-2
- Apr 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Pisa (A)1-0
Sassuolo
WinLossWinDrawWin
- May 3 · v AC Milan (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · v Como (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Torino | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.