Serie A (Italy) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:45 · Torino vs Udinese
Likeliest: Torino win · 44%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torino44%41%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Udinese31%28%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torino
LossWinWinLossWin
- Jan 4 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-0
- Dec 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Dec 21 · at Sassuolo (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Dec 8 · v Milan (H)2-3
Udinese
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 3 · at Como (A)0-1
- Dec 27 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Fiorentina (A)1-5
- Dec 14 · v Napoli (H)1-0
- Dec 8 · v Genoa (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Torino | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.